The Presents Are Opened

By: Derek Hottell

We woke up on Christmas, ran downstairs, and opened all of our gifts. The college football season is under way, and it is time to figure out what we have been given in the forms of WKU, UK, and UL this year for our proverbial Christmas. Are they our Red Rider BB Gun, something we treasure forever? Or, are they the pink bunny suit from our aunt we never see?

WKU - It is hard to say what we have in WKU this year. The Hilltoppers are eligible for a bowl this year as they complete their transition to Division 1-A (I still like the old terminology.). What is difficult to know from their game against Tennessee is how successful this season can be because with teams from the Sun Belt Conference success isn't measured by games against the SEC.

For sure, they are young. For sure, the offense must be better, especially the passing game and play calling. For sure, WKU must improve their depth and front lines. They are no longer a powerhouse in Division 1-AA; they cannot line up and run teams over.

However, the defense played well for the first quarter until they began to wear down, and the special teams performed better than expected. You would usually expect to see the vast discrepancy in speed and talent in special teams where big plays by the superior team are the norm, but there wasn't any of that during the game indicating that there is at least raw talent at the skill positions.

The final verdict is ...: WKU is not as far away from completing their transition to Division 1-A as the Tennessee score would have you believe. If they improve their depth, beef up their front lines, and become more creative in their play calling, they will turn the corner. Based upon the first game, I would predict a final record of 6-6. They will have a chance to have a record of 8-4, but will lose some close games at the end as their young players still become more seasoned.

UK - The Wildcats were by far the most exciting gift we opened from the local universities this weekend. They showed more explosiveness on offense than they did all of last season, especially in the passing game, and the defense still looks stout. Granted this was all against a Miami (OH) team that will be lucky to win one game in the Mid-American Conference. But, this was opening weekend, and playing Miami (OH) on the road is a tougher test than most major teams experience (see the University of Louisville vs. Indiana State).

The final verdict is ...: The SEC East is still difficult, but it is not the beast that it normally is. Georgia is still good, but not great; South Carolina still has difficulty moving the ball on offense; and Tennessee has talent, but it is young talent. The out of conference schedule is extremely manageable, and the Wildcats will be favored in every one of the games. I predict that UK and Coach Rich Brooks will finally make the hurdle and achieve a .500 record in the SEC, and they will end the season with an 8-4 record and return to their fourth straight bowl game. If a few bounces go their way, it is not inconceivable that they could have a final record of 9-3 and make some noise.

UL - Hmmmmmm. What to make of the University of Louisville? Let's start with the positives. Special teams, while still not great, looked much better than last season. Trent Guy at times looked like the guy that showed flashes of brilliance while returning punts and kick-offs on the Cardinals way to the Orange Bowl three years ago. The kicking game with Shoeless Joe (Ryan Payne) wasn't nearly as woeful, and while the punt average wasn't very high, this was because of the number of pin-backs that Goettsche had.

The defense played looser, faster, and with more abandon than it has in two years. Anderson looked like he will be more formidable than he was last year in route to being named Big East Rookie of the Year. Powell looked like he may start to show the promise he did as a freshman. The receiving corp is fast and deep. Graham will be the type of tightend that Louisville fans are accustomed to having with Ibn Green, Gary Barnidge, and the like.

Now, for the bad. Indiana State is not good. They make Miami (OH) look like the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a team that lost to an NAIA school the week before playing Louisville. Justin Burke at times looked talented, especially when moving outside of the pocket, but he was shaky at best when throwing the ball downfield, and he must be able to stretch the field, especially in play action, to free up space for Anderson and Powell. The recievers dropped and tipped too many balls. The third down conversion rate was deplorable on both sides of the ball (too few for Louisville, too many for Indiana State).

What is most disconcerting about the play on the field is the play of the offensive and defensive lines. Louisville could not and did not line up and run over the Sycamores, and likewise, they did not force the type of pressure on the quarterback on the defensive side of the ball that you would expect. This has to improve, if they have any hope of being competitive.

The final verdict is...: The play calling wasn't as bad as the score would have you believe. But, Justin Burke, if he remains the starting quarterback, must hit the open receivers downfield that were available. At least 21 points were lost because receivers that were wide open were overthrown. The penalties are more concerning because it is evidence of either a lack of discipline or of being over matched, which if the Cardinals are over matched by the Sycamores, they are in trouble. The Big East isn't great, but there is enough talent that UL will struggle, but they will win one game that they shouldn't and will have a final record of 6-6, but will not go to a bowl game.

So, this is the season that I foresee for us in Kentucky after we experience College Football Christmas, and I plan to enjoy all of the gifts, even the pink bunny suit.

at 7:43 PM